INSIGHTS
Wind in the Willows
Affordable Housing Reset
Affordable Housing Reset. As if the problem wasn’t acute enough, the US is about to hit a wave of new uncertainty for affordable housing.
Summer Doldrums in Financial News
Summer Doldrums in Financial News. News in financial markets is slow, many market participants are sitting on a chaise lounge in East Hampton, NY, Nantucket, MA, or Dewey, DE, sipping on a cold beverage trying to ignore what news could come in the fall.
Cash Pile – Market Sentiment or Earnings Yield?
Cash assets under management are at $7.8 Trillion according to Bank of America. This is an astounding number, and, in many cases, investors could look at this number as a sure sign of economic fear globally. In fact, as it currently stands, this number factors heavily in to BofA’s “Bull & Bear” indicator, which
PE Maturity Wall
PE Maturity Wall. Last week, PitchBook, one of the global authorities on all things private investing, brought up a fascinating point.
First Half Consumer Wrap-up
At the midpoint of the year, we like to take stock of the six months that have been and use that context to reassess the back half.
Property Price Uptick? Such a Long Long Time to be Gone and a Short Time to be There
Property Price Uptick? Such a Long Long Time to be Gone and a Short Time to be ThereIt’s often difficult to interpret short-term pricing data that is meant to give market participants clarity.
The Wealth Manager’s New Best Friend
The Wealth Manager’s New Best Friend. Over the last several years, wealth managers have seen a lot of disruption. Regulatory changes, technological changes, and changes in traditional asset allocation have all made life tougher for financial advisors.
Deltek Architectural Billings Index – A Fascinating Uptick
Deltek Architectural Billings Index – A Fascinating Uptick. Capital markets experts have been very focused on commercial real estate and a loan wall that is approaching in Q4 of 2023.
Extend And Pretend Redux? We Can Share What We’ve Got Of Yours ‘Cause We Done Shared All Of Mine
Extend And Pretend Redux? When the commercial real estate world and regional banks have problems, they often kick the can down the road
More Loans and Subsidies
A tentative agreement between Ford Motor Company and the US Department of Energy will help Ford build 3 electric vehicle battery factories in Kentucky and Tennessee.
The Dreaded Down Round – Don’t Think About What You Left Behind
The Dreaded Down Round. Discounting using interest rates or the consequences of asset allocation, work together throughout economic cycles
Regulation Overload - Wave That Flag, Wave It Wide And High
Wave That Flag. Regulatory activities force workers and businesses to move around the country. In general, USA has always been a business friendly place.
We’re Short On Infrastructure – Maybe You Had Too Much Too Fast
We’re Short On Infrastructure. We’ve written in previous newsletters about The Chips Act and government subsidies for projects that Congress believes will change the United States for the better.
Middle Markets PE Starting to Show Their Mettle
Middle Markets PE Starting to Show Their Mettle. Small and middle market participants outperform after years of sluggish capital raising and performance.
The Affordability Question
One of the distinct advantages much of the Sunbelt has had over the last several decades is how inexpensive it is to live and do business in these states.
Calpers Value Buying VC
We’ve spoken in the past about good vintages in private asset classes. Frankly, 2023 and 2024 set up to be fascinating case studies in human behavior because the spread between buyers and sellers continues to build and very few transactions are occurring because of it. It is usually this point in the economic cycle when the wealthiest of the wealthy and the most sophisticated of sophisticated investors really get to work.
Fed Funds, International Central Banking, and Multifamily Real Estate
Fed Funds, international central banking. On Wednesday of last week, the Federal Reserve made its highly anticipated pause in interest rate hikes following CPI Data that suggested that inflation continues to cool. The 4% print was in line with expectations and continues a downward trend that has been in place since June of 2022. Thankfully, it was low enough to warrant pausing to reassess the effectiveness of rate increases from the last year and a half. As we have mentioned in the past, we do not anticipate a rapid decline in rates because while 4% is still getting better, it is still double the Fed’s target of 2%.
Trouble for Banks is Not Just Trouble for Banks - The Time Has Come to Weigh Those Things
Trouble for Banks is Not Just Trouble for Banks - The Time Has Come to Weigh Those Things. As many times as we’ve seen the phrase “regional banks are vulnerable to commercial real estate”, we’re just not sure that the bulk of the market really understands what that means. Today banks clearly trade like they’re in trouble.
Jobs Report - Rate Cut Bets Fading
Well Wall Streeters, which is it? Do we want a strong economy, or low rates? The data that the Federal Reserve uses to determine interest rates refuses to relent. That should be great news as it means that despite the most rapid rate cycle in history, the economy remains resilient. Last week, the United States Department of Labor released their latest Non-Farm Payrolls report and like most of them since the depths of the pandemic, the report was above pre-pandemic averages and unemployment continues near historical lows.