Willow Creek Partners 7/5/23 Willow Creek Partners 7/5/23

Deltek Architectural Billings Index – A Fascinating Uptick

Deltek Architectural Billings Index – A Fascinating Uptick. Capital markets experts have been very focused on commercial real estate and a loan wall that is approaching in Q4 of 2023.

Willow Creek Partners 7/5/23 Willow Creek Partners 7/5/23

Extend And Pretend Redux? We Can Share What We’ve Got Of Yours ‘Cause We Done Shared All Of Mine

Extend And Pretend Redux? When the commercial real estate world and regional banks have problems, they often kick the can down the road

Willow Creek Partners 7/5/23 Willow Creek Partners 7/5/23

More Loans and Subsidies

A tentative agreement between Ford Motor Company and the US Department of Energy will help Ford build 3 electric vehicle battery factories in Kentucky and Tennessee.

Willow Creek Partners 7/5/23 Willow Creek Partners 7/5/23

The Dreaded Down Round – Don’t Think About What You Left Behind

The Dreaded Down Round. Discounting using interest rates or the consequences of asset allocation, work together throughout economic cycles

Willow Creek Partners 6/28/23 Willow Creek Partners 6/28/23

Regulation Overload - Wave That Flag, Wave It Wide And High

Wave That Flag. Regulatory activities force workers and businesses to move around the country. In general, USA has always been a business friendly place.

Willow Creek Partners 6/28/23 Willow Creek Partners 6/28/23

We’re Short On Infrastructure – Maybe You Had Too Much Too Fast

We’re Short On Infrastructure. We’ve written in previous newsletters about The Chips Act and government subsidies for projects that Congress believes will change the United States for the better.

Willow Creek Partners 6/28/23 Willow Creek Partners 6/28/23

Middle Markets PE Starting to Show Their Mettle

Middle Markets PE Starting to Show Their Mettle. Small and middle market participants outperform after years of sluggish capital raising and performance.

Willow Creek Partners 6/28/23 Willow Creek Partners 6/28/23

The Affordability Question

One of the distinct advantages much of the Sunbelt has had over the last several decades is how inexpensive it is to live and do business in these states.

Willow Creek Partners 6/20/23 Willow Creek Partners 6/20/23

Calpers Value Buying VC

We’ve spoken in the past about good vintages in private asset classes. Frankly, 2023 and 2024 set up to be fascinating case studies in human behavior because the spread between buyers and sellers continues to build and very few transactions are occurring because of it. It is usually this point in the economic cycle when the wealthiest of the wealthy and the most sophisticated of sophisticated investors really get to work.

Willow Creek Partners 6/20/23 Willow Creek Partners 6/20/23

Fed Funds, International Central Banking, and Multifamily Real Estate

Fed Funds, international central banking. On Wednesday of last week, the Federal Reserve made its highly anticipated pause in interest rate hikes following CPI Data that suggested that inflation continues to cool. The 4% print was in line with expectations and continues a downward trend that has been in place since June of 2022. Thankfully, it was low enough to warrant pausing to reassess the effectiveness of rate increases from the last year and a half. As we have mentioned in the past, we do not anticipate a rapid decline in rates because while 4% is still getting better, it is still double the Fed’s target of 2%.

Willow Creek Partners 6/20/23 Willow Creek Partners 6/20/23

Trouble for Banks is Not Just Trouble for Banks - The Time Has Come to Weigh Those Things

Trouble for Banks is Not Just Trouble for Banks - The Time Has Come to Weigh Those Things. As many times as we’ve seen the phrase “regional banks are vulnerable to commercial real estate”, we’re just not sure that the bulk of the market really understands what that means. Today banks clearly trade like they’re in trouble.

Willow Creek Partners 6/20/23 Willow Creek Partners 6/20/23

New IPOS?

New IPOS? The IPO market has been dreadfully slow. In fact, in 2022, there were only 68 IPOs. This is the second lowest total since 2000. The lowest of course was 62 IPOs in 2

Willow Creek Partners 6/12/23 Willow Creek Partners 6/12/23

Jobs Report - Rate Cut Bets Fading

Well Wall Streeters, which is it? Do we want a strong economy, or low rates? The data that the Federal Reserve uses to determine interest rates refuses to relent. That should be great news as it means that despite the most rapid rate cycle in history, the economy remains resilient. Last week, the United States Department of Labor released their latest Non-Farm Payrolls report and like most of them since the depths of the pandemic, the report was above pre-pandemic averages and unemployment continues near historical lows.

Willow Creek Partners 6/12/23 Willow Creek Partners 6/12/23

Feeling Good vs. Looking Good

The stock market is up more than 10% this year. Unemployment is low, and compensation levels are rising. Sounds awesome right? Everyone should feel great about the economy and their personal finances. According to the Federal Reserve Survey of Household Economics and Decision-making, that may be true for personal finances, but nothing could be further for the truth about the broader economy. The numbers are startling. 73% of people feel good about their own personal finances, but only 18% feel good about the economy. F

Willow Creek Partners 6/12/23 Willow Creek Partners 6/12/23

CMBS Delinquencies

While Commercial Real Estate has been in the news a lot lately, the struggles that many had predicted hadn’t translated into a really meaningful change in delinquency….until this May.

Willow Creek Partners 6/12/23 Willow Creek Partners 6/12/23

Amazon and Meta – If You Plant Ice, You’re Gonna Harvest Wind

Amazon and Meta – If You Plant Ice, You’re Gonna Harvest Wind. In a fight no one would have expected in 2019, Amazon and Meta find themselves locked in a battle.

Willow Creek Partners 6/6/23 Willow Creek Partners 6/6/23

Office Occupancy – Short Term Uncertainty or “Doom Loop”?

Office Occupancy. Real estate investors, landlords and tenants have been looking for something…anything…to give them direction about the future of office space.