INSIGHTS
Wind in the Willows
Mortgage Rates And a Little Sympathy
The current average rate on a 30-year mortgage is 7.48%. That number is the highest it’s been since November of 2000.
Problems with Insurance
We’ve touched on insurance a few times in Wind in the Willows, but the world of insurance has changed a lot in the last year.
Tax Collectors… How Much Do You Really Like Working From Home?
What happens if the office buildings which typically carry the highest tax burden, aren’t occupied?
Strip Malls - Hottest Thing in Real Estate
In a time when we hear negativity about commercial real estate, it’s great to hear about a success story. It’s the strip mall around the corner from your house.
Migration, Underwriting, and Imperfect Science
Migration, Underwriting, and Imperfect Science. The past several years have, without a doubt, seen some of the strangest behavior in human history.
Apartment Demand – The Cycle Continues
The drivers of supply and demand are important inputs that dictate where our next investments will take place.
Summer Doldrums in Financial News
Summer Doldrums in Financial News. News in financial markets is slow, many market participants are sitting on a chaise lounge in East Hampton, NY, Nantucket, MA, or Dewey, DE, sipping on a cold beverage trying to ignore what news could come in the fall.
Deltek Architectural Billings Index – A Fascinating Uptick
Deltek Architectural Billings Index – A Fascinating Uptick. Capital markets experts have been very focused on commercial real estate and a loan wall that is approaching in Q4 of 2023.
Extend And Pretend Redux? We Can Share What We’ve Got Of Yours ‘Cause We Done Shared All Of Mine
Extend And Pretend Redux? When the commercial real estate world and regional banks have problems, they often kick the can down the road
The Affordability Question
One of the distinct advantages much of the Sunbelt has had over the last several decades is how inexpensive it is to live and do business in these states.
Fed Funds, International Central Banking, and Multifamily Real Estate
Fed Funds, international central banking. On Wednesday of last week, the Federal Reserve made its highly anticipated pause in interest rate hikes following CPI Data that suggested that inflation continues to cool. The 4% print was in line with expectations and continues a downward trend that has been in place since June of 2022. Thankfully, it was low enough to warrant pausing to reassess the effectiveness of rate increases from the last year and a half. As we have mentioned in the past, we do not anticipate a rapid decline in rates because while 4% is still getting better, it is still double the Fed’s target of 2%.
Trouble for Banks is Not Just Trouble for Banks - The Time Has Come to Weigh Those Things
Trouble for Banks is Not Just Trouble for Banks - The Time Has Come to Weigh Those Things. As many times as we’ve seen the phrase “regional banks are vulnerable to commercial real estate”, we’re just not sure that the bulk of the market really understands what that means. Today banks clearly trade like they’re in trouble.
CMBS Delinquencies
While Commercial Real Estate has been in the news a lot lately, the struggles that many had predicted hadn’t translated into a really meaningful change in delinquency….until this May.
PE Add-on Acquisitions and a Bifurcation of Asset Prices
PE Add-on Acquisitions and a Bifurcation of Asset Prices. With market uncertainty hitting a bit of a crescendo...
Like an Old Neighbor, State Farm Won’t Be There
Like an Old Neighbor. In a move that felt like an inevitability, insurance companies are beginning to rationalize where and how they do business.
Hotels, Office, Chicago, Oh My
Some cities are a fast fail in today’s lending environment. We’ve spoken at some length about some of the cities in California and how the new taxes and a difficult regulatory environment have made it nearly impossible to do business in once (and recently) great cities.
Private Real Estate Funding - I Know the Rent is in Arrears
Private real estate funds had a terrible fund raising year. The drop from 2021 to 2022 was the largest since the Global Financial Crisis and so we’re paying close attention.