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Wind in the Willows…
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Wind in the Willows…
Wind in the Willows…
30
May
Apple’s Tie Up With Broadcom
Pay close attention. While we heard the term “Trade War” a lot during the Trump...
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30
May
Keep On Rollin’ My Old Buddy, You’re Movin’ Much Too Slow – PacWest Selling Real Estate Loans
Banks are looking for ways to save themselves. The process of selling loans to adjust...
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30
May
Default Doesn’t Require Bad Credit
One of the strangest things we’ve been hearing over the last several months is the...
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30
May
Interest Rates And Small Business
It’s easy to underappreciate the effect that increased interest rates really have on the economy. ...
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24
May
Consumer Health – Caught In A Slow-Motion Dash For The Door
Last week was this quarter’s consumer week in earnings reporting. Home Depot, Walmart, Target, Foot...
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24
May
Hotels, Office, Chicago, Oh My
Some cities are a fast fail in today’s lending environment. We’ve spoken at some length...
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24
May
Conferences Boosting Economies
It may not always seem it, but the world is returning to some sense of...
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24
May
Fed – Everyone’s an Expert and No One Knows for Sure
Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed…..everyone has something to say about the Fed. Whether it’s coming...
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17
May
The Old Playbook… Or the New?
The pursuit of profit in down markets has always been difficult. Academics have searched for...
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17
May
Banking Crisis Continues – Ya Ain’t Got Half of What You Thought You Had
Anytime an industry is cumulatively down 35% as the Regional Banking industry is right now,...
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17
May
California’s Self-Inflicted Wounds
Last month Los Angeles’ so called Mansion Tax went into effect. This tax, supported by...
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17
May
Private Equity – Next Stage of the Cycle
Private financing is moving to the next stage of the cycle and we think it...
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10
May
VC, Tech, and A Good Vintage
No, we’re not talking about wine. Warren Buffet once famously said, “Be greedy when others...
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10
May
Building Boom – We’re in the Strangest Places if You Look at it Right
Even in the wake of a third major bank failure in 2023, the US Economy...
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10
May
Speaking of Things That Will Make the Fed’s Life Difficult – The Dollar
The foreign exchange market is understood by very few people. Some assume that the dollar...
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10
May
Logistics and Chinese Black Box – Fear Guides Massive Economic Shifts
We’ve written in the past about changing world logistics and the unwinding of globalization/comparative advantage....
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10
May
Willow Creek Partners Celebrates its 6th Anniversary!
WCP celebrated its 6th anniversary on May 5th! It's hard to believe how far we've...
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03
May
1 Meme stock down – Understanding the difference between a funding gap and secular change
At the end of 2013, BBBY common stock was worth more than $17B. Today, as...
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03
May
Worker Migration Makes Inflation Contagious
Workers move for a lot of different reasons. Some are looking for a better paying...
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03
May
Believe it if You Need it, or Leave it if You Dare – Rural Places Need More Workers
One of the truly bipartisan efforts in Washington is that of building rural broadband capabilities. ...
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03
May
Office Sublet – An Indication of Valuation Uncertainty
Westside Los Angeles Office is a relatively narrow market. It is also an area of...
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26
Apr
Millennials, Homes, and Multifamily
It’s been a weird few years for young people. Millennials have seen the dotcom crash,...
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26
Apr
Trouble Ahead, Trouble Behind: Consumer Debt and BNPL Better Watch Their Speed
As we’ve noted in the past, when trying to gauge where the economy is going,...
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26
Apr
PE Buying PE Debt
Over the past few weeks, we’ve spoken a bit about the financial creativity of private...
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26
Apr
The IRS Got One Right!!!
It’s not very often that investors appreciate the IRS, so this is a moment that...
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19
Apr
Construction and Factory Work is Back in the US!!!
One of the more difficult tasks economists have to face in their careers is gauging...
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19
Apr
Since it Costs a Lot to Win, and Even More to Lose, You and me Better Spend Some Time, Wondrin’ What to Choose.
Last Wednesday the Labor Department released their Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and while these...
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19
Apr
More Rough Sledding For Stock Pickers
The last 20 years have been rough for stock pickers. Public assets have been under...
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19
Apr
Getting Leverage as a Private Equity Buyer
Economic cycles always unearth a bit of financial creativity, and no one is more creative...
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11
Apr
Valuations in PE…Are They Too High?
2022 performance differentials caused and continues to cause investors to rethink some of what they...
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11
Apr
Rent Control Hurts New Investment
At every turn, there is another story about shortages in affordable housing. Part of that...
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11
Apr
Death of the Sunbelt Grossly Exaggerated
With a nod to Mark Twain, the death of the Sunbelt economy and job market...
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11
Apr
The Stock Market Looks Set Up, Like A Bowlin’ Pin and Oil Looks Like Roy Munson
As one quarter ends and another begins, it’s tough to ignore the best first quarter...
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04
Apr
Too Big to Fail Means “safe”?
In today’s episode of Regulatory Roulette, we’re reminded of the phrase “Too Big To Fail”...
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04
Apr
Understanding the CHIPS Act and What it Can do For the US Economy
In the summer of 2022, the Biden Administration, together with Congress, passed The CHIPS and...
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04
Apr
The Finger Pointing Game
We’ll gladly get on board and criticize the Fed for any number of things. Money...
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04
Apr
Rent Growth – There is a Road, But it’s No Simple Highway
2022 ended with a giant thud for rent growth. As can be seen in the...
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28
Mar
Until Something Breaks…
The Federal Reserve raised Fed Funds Rates another quarter of a point last week to...
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28
Mar
VC to Slow Following SVB Collapse
Years ago, a colleague/mentor shared a truth about the investment industry that few people stop...
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28
Mar
Multi Build? Not all MSAs are The Same
If you’ve been watching Willow Creek Partners operate over the last several years, you know...
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28
Mar
SVB Blames WFH and There Might be Some Truth to That…
The fallout from SVB’s collapse continues to dominate the news, and we could spend the...
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23
Mar
Inflation, Banking Crisis, and Shifts in Funding Landscape
It’s not often that we’re going to agree with what Jim Cramer says on CNBC,...
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23
Mar
Shifting Landscape of Consumer Spending and What it Means for Real Estate
Stephen Squeri, chairman and chief executive at Amex, said in a letter to shareholders. “Millennial...
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23
Mar
CRE and Banking Comeuppance
In talking about bank failures and SVB/Signature, it’s easy to dismiss the problems as unique...
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23
Mar
You Know All The Rules By Now
Last week we mentioned that there would be more to the story of SVB and...
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16
Mar
Every now and then, it IS different this time
During every economic cycle there is someone who wants to claim that some particular element...
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16
Mar
More grey than silver lining
The stories of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank saw the beginning of their end...
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16
Mar
Interest rates and the Gadot recession
Economists love referencing the play “Waiting for Godot”. If you’re not familiar, it is a...
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16
Mar
Who is TINA? Doesn’t matter, she’s been replaced
TINA, or There Is No Alternative, has been a common refrain from public market investors...
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16
Mar
Private Real Estate Funding – I know the rent is in arrears. Opportunistic dominates and Distressed had its weakest year ever.
It probably won’t surprise anyone that private real estate funds had a terrible fund raising...
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