Wind in the Willows…

30
May

Apple’s Tie Up With Broadcom

Pay close attention.  While we heard the term “Trade War” a lot during the Trump...
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30
May

Keep On Rollin’ My Old Buddy, You’re Movin’ Much Too Slow – PacWest Selling Real Estate Loans

Banks are looking for ways to save themselves.  The process of selling loans to adjust...
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Brookfield Building
30
May

Default Doesn’t Require Bad Credit

One of the strangest things we’ve been hearing over the last several months is the...
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30
May

Interest Rates And Small Business

It’s easy to underappreciate the effect that increased interest rates really have on the economy. ...
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24
May

Consumer Health – Caught In A Slow-Motion Dash For The Door

Last week was this quarter’s consumer week in earnings reporting.  Home Depot, Walmart, Target, Foot...
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24
May

Hotels, Office, Chicago, Oh My

Some cities are a fast fail in today’s lending environment.  We’ve spoken at some length...
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24
May

Conferences Boosting Economies

It may not always seem it, but the world is returning to some sense of...
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24
May

Fed – Everyone’s an Expert and No One Knows for Sure

Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed…..everyone has something to say about the Fed.  Whether it’s coming...
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17
May

The Old Playbook… Or the New?

The pursuit of profit in down markets has always been difficult.  Academics have searched for...
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17
May

Banking Crisis Continues – Ya Ain’t Got Half of What You Thought You Had

Anytime an industry is cumulatively down 35% as the Regional Banking industry is right now,...
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17
May

California’s Self-Inflicted Wounds

Last month Los Angeles’ so called Mansion Tax went into effect.  This tax, supported by...
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17
May

Private Equity – Next Stage of the Cycle

Private financing is moving to the next stage of the cycle and we think it...
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10
May

VC, Tech, and A Good Vintage

No, we’re not talking about wine.  Warren Buffet once famously said, “Be greedy when others...
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10
May

Building Boom – We’re in the Strangest Places if You Look at it Right

Even in the wake of a third major bank failure in 2023, the US Economy...
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10
May

Speaking of Things That Will Make the Fed’s Life Difficult – The Dollar

The foreign exchange market is understood by very few people.  Some assume that the dollar...
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10
May

Logistics and Chinese Black Box – Fear Guides Massive Economic Shifts

We’ve written in the past about changing world logistics and the unwinding of globalization/comparative advantage....
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10
May

Willow Creek Partners Celebrates its 6th Anniversary!

WCP celebrated its 6th anniversary on May 5th! It's hard to believe how far we've...
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03
May

1 Meme stock down – Understanding the difference between a funding gap and secular change

At the end of 2013, BBBY common stock was worth more than $17B.  Today, as...
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03
May

Worker Migration Makes Inflation Contagious

Workers move for a lot of different reasons.  Some are looking for a better paying...
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03
May

Believe it if You Need it, or Leave it if You Dare – Rural Places Need More Workers

One of the truly bipartisan efforts in Washington is that of building rural broadband capabilities. ...
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03
May

Office Sublet – An Indication of Valuation Uncertainty

Westside Los Angeles Office is a relatively narrow market.  It is also an area of...
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26
Apr

Millennials, Homes, and Multifamily

It’s been a weird few years for young people.  Millennials have seen the dotcom crash,...
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26
Apr

Trouble Ahead, Trouble Behind:  Consumer Debt and BNPL Better Watch Their Speed

As we’ve noted in the past, when trying to gauge where the economy is going,...
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26
Apr

PE Buying PE Debt

Over the past few weeks, we’ve spoken a bit about the financial creativity of private...
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26
Apr

The IRS Got One Right!!!

It’s not very often that investors appreciate the IRS, so this is a moment that...
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19
Apr

Construction and Factory Work is Back in the US!!!

One of the more difficult tasks economists have to face in their careers is gauging...
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19
Apr

Since it Costs a Lot to Win, and Even More to Lose, You and me Better Spend Some Time, Wondrin’ What to Choose.

Last Wednesday the Labor Department released their Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and while these...
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19
Apr

More Rough Sledding For Stock Pickers

The last 20 years have been rough for stock pickers.  Public assets have been under...
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19
Apr

Getting Leverage as a Private Equity Buyer

Economic cycles always unearth a bit of financial creativity, and no one is more creative...
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11
Apr

Valuations in PE…Are They Too High?

2022 performance differentials caused and continues to cause investors to rethink some of what they...
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11
Apr

Rent Control Hurts New Investment

At every turn, there is another story about shortages in affordable housing.  Part of that...
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11
Apr

Death of the Sunbelt Grossly Exaggerated

With a nod to Mark Twain, the death of the Sunbelt economy and job market...
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11
Apr

The Stock Market Looks Set Up, Like A Bowlin’ Pin and Oil Looks Like Roy Munson 

As one quarter ends and another begins, it’s tough to ignore the best first quarter...
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04
Apr

Too Big to Fail Means “safe”?

In today’s episode of Regulatory Roulette, we’re reminded of the phrase “Too Big To Fail”...
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04
Apr

Understanding the CHIPS Act and What it Can do For the US Economy

In the summer of 2022, the Biden Administration, together with Congress, passed The CHIPS and...
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04
Apr

The Finger Pointing Game

We’ll gladly get on board and criticize the Fed for any number of things.  Money...
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04
Apr

Rent Growth – There is a Road, But it’s No Simple Highway

2022 ended with a giant thud for rent growth.  As can be seen in the...
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28
Mar

Until Something Breaks…

The Federal Reserve raised Fed Funds Rates another quarter of a point last week to...
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28
Mar

VC to Slow Following SVB Collapse

Years ago, a colleague/mentor shared a truth about the investment industry that few people stop...
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28
Mar

Multi Build?  Not all MSAs are The Same

If you’ve been watching Willow Creek Partners operate over the last several years, you know...
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28
Mar

SVB Blames WFH and There Might be Some Truth to That…

The fallout from SVB’s collapse continues to dominate the news, and we could spend the...
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23
Mar

Inflation, Banking Crisis, and Shifts in Funding Landscape

It’s not often that we’re going to agree with what Jim Cramer says on CNBC,...
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23
Mar

Shifting Landscape of Consumer Spending and What it Means for Real Estate

Stephen Squeri, chairman and chief executive at Amex, said in a letter to shareholders.  “Millennial...
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23
Mar

CRE and Banking Comeuppance

In talking about bank failures and SVB/Signature, it’s easy to dismiss the problems as unique...
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23
Mar

You Know All The Rules By Now

Last week we mentioned that there would be more to the story of SVB and...
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16
Mar

Every now and then, it IS different this time

During every economic cycle there is someone who wants to claim that some particular element...
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16
Mar

More grey than silver lining

The stories of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank saw the beginning of their end...
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16
Mar

Interest rates and the Gadot recession

Economists love referencing the play “Waiting for Godot”. If you’re not familiar, it is a...
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16
Mar

Who is TINA?  Doesn’t matter, she’s been replaced

TINA, or There Is No Alternative, has been a common refrain from public market investors...
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16
Mar

Private Real Estate Funding – I know the rent is in arrears. Opportunistic dominates and Distressed had its weakest year ever.

It probably won’t surprise anyone that private real estate funds had a terrible fund raising...
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