Pay close attention.  While we heard the term “Trade War” a lot during the Trump Administration and associated it with tariffs, quotas and subsidies, the more dramatic part is just starting to lift off the ground.  Last week, Apple announced a multi-billion-dollar deal with Broadcom to manufacture 5G radio frequency chips in the United States.Read More

Banks are looking for ways to save themselves.  The process of selling loans to adjust the balance sheet is not a new one.  Banks have traded loans between each other for ages and there has traditionally been enough volume to incent several intermediaries to set up whole loan trading desks. Read More

One of the strangest things we’ve been hearing over the last several months is the idea that if/when a recession comes, it won’t be anything like the Global Financial Crisis because that was a credit problem, whereas, what we see today is a liquidity problem.  It’s a fascinating distinction, but we wonder if this nuance...Read More

It’s easy to underappreciate the effect that increased interest rates really have on the economy.  Intuitively, when rates go up, debt gets more expensive.  But that’s not the only effect.  When rates go up, access to capital also gets much tighter.  It’s not just more expensive, it’s also harder to come by.  But not for...Read More

Last week was this quarter’s consumer week in earnings reporting.  Home Depot, Walmart, Target, Foot Locker and TJX all reported.  While they were a mixed bag, consumers are still spending.  Home Depot however, was a significant outlier and gave us some forward-looking information that suggests that the remodeling boom may have come to an end. ...Read More

Some cities are a fast fail in today’s lending environment.  We’ve spoken at some length about some of the cities in California and how the new taxes and a difficult regulatory environment have made it nearly impossible to do business in once (and recently) great cities. Read More

It may not always seem it, but the world is returning to some sense of normalcy. Take the conference scene for example. When Covid-19 first hit, the world was tracking super spreader events that triggered the outbreak.Read More

Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed…..everyone has something to say about the Fed.  Whether it’s coming from the inside of the Fed, billionaire investors, or the guru of all things interest rates, the hits and misunderstandings seem to come from every direction. Read More

The pursuit of profit in down markets has always been difficult.  Academics have searched for years to find assets that go up in down markets or down in up markets.  Market technicians have been scanning charts and data for decades in pursuit of durable patterns and inflection points with the hope of finding better hedges. ...Read More

Anytime an industry is cumulatively down 35% as the Regional Banking industry is right now, investors and the media start asking questions about when the right time is to step in and buy.  Like anyone, we like a good value, and we appreciate the market’s ability to mean revert.  However, as we investigate the current...Read More